When Alphabet (GOOGL)-unit Waymo launched its commercial robo-taxi service in four Phoenix suburbs in December, it should have been a big day for proponents of self-driving cars. Instead, the launch of Waymo One served notice that expectations for autonomous vehicles heading into 2019 are being lowered.
XFalling short of Waymo's goal to phase out its human supervisors, the commercial launch put a human back behind the wheel so they can intervene in case of emergency.
The autonomous technology unit — considered the leader in this space — further disappointed by limiting the commercial service's availability mostly to people that took part in its early rider program. Waymo met expectations by offering its service to a 100-square-mile zone. It'll take longer to offer availability in the greater Phoenix area of 600-square miles.
"I am not sure that Waymo's robo-taxi service is a milestone yet," said Raj Rajkumar, a professor at Carnegie Mellon University in an interview. "Waymo is trying to have it both ways by having a human operator for safety and also calling it driverless."
But whenever Waymo expands its commercial robo-taxi services in parts of California, Texas, Georgia, Michigan and Washington, where testing is underway, it'll also take the same cautious approach.
"The road ahead to full automation is real and promising, but it's just going to take much more time — several more years in fact," Rajkumar said. "There has been too much hyperbole — with Tesla claiming full automation dating back to 2016, for example. The holy-grail of full automation is years away."
Fully Automated, Self-Driving Cars
While Waymo is widely hailed as the leader in self-driving technology, General Motors (GM) is close behind. Also making moves are Tesla Motors (TSLA), Aptiv (APTV), startup Zoox.
Many consumers are familiar with driver assistance systems that offer safety features. These systems aid in collision avoidance, automatic braking, switching lanes. The most advanced systems — such as from Tesla, GM's Cadillac unit, and Volvo — offer hands-free motoring in some situations. However, a driver is on standby to take control of the vehicle.
In Phoenix, Waymo achieved what's called "Level 4" automation. Its driverless cars operate without human supervisors but only in a premapped area.
With 299 sunny days per year on average, Phoenix is an ideal place to launch a commercial service, self-driving proponents say. Laser systems that guide self-driving cars have trouble in rain, snow and fog.
Waymo, GM, Tesla Battle For Lead
The holy grail for Waymo, General Motors, Tesla and others is building a Level 5 fully autonomous car. That kind of vehicle could go anywhere instructed, including unmapped areas, under any weather conditions.
Rajkumar says Waymo vehicles have required manual intervention by human supervisors about every 1,000 miles or so on average in very mild-weather regions.
"It's safe to say that expectations for widespread Level 4 or 5 autonomy are 5 to 10 years away. The best we can expect in the short-term is low-speed applications in defined areas or on a limited city-by-city basis," said Roger Lanctot, analyst at Strategy Analytics. "The long-term view and opportunity for autonomous operation remains positive and still promises transformative opportunities — but the incremental progress of market leader Waymo suggests this is a very long-term play indeed."
At a conference in November, Waymo Chief Executive John Krafcik said self-driving cars won't be ubiquitous for decades. Weather conditions will always pose a challenge, he said. Waymo will be 10 years old in 2019.
"Autonomy always will have some constraints," he said.
No Licensing Deal Yet
Waymo so far hasn't licensed its autonomous vehicle technology. That's one development to look for in 2019.
As tech giants and auto industry incumbents race to build autonomous vehicles, partnerships are blossoming out of necessity. Honda in October invested $750 million in General Motors' Cruise Automation program.
Honda will contribute another $2 billion over the next 12 years in fees and development costs. Toyota invested in ride-hailing firm Uber Technologies in August as part of a deal to cooperate in developing self-driving cars.
"The technology and capital requirements for AV development pose challenges for the global automotive industry that we expect will increasingly be addressed through cooperative arrangements and joint ventures," Moody's Investor Service said in a report. In October, reports surfaced that Volkswagen (VWAGY) and Ford (F) were in talks over autonomous technology.
Assisted Driving Still Core Market
More alliances could be announced during the Consumer Electronics Show that runs Jan. 7 to 10 or the Detroit Auto Show. The latter starts Jan. 15.
Waymo's self-driving cars have logged more than 10 million miles in testing. That helps self-driving cars with object detection and categorizing things like road signs or walkways. However, autonomous technology must improve in terms of decision-making in situations involving rights of way, for example. That's where artificial intelligence software plays a part.
Wall Street analysts, meanwhile, are being cautious.
Nvidia (NVDA) and Intel (INTC) have been boosted by demand for powerful electronic chips built into driver assistance systems and early-stage self-driving cars. Nvidia's auto customers include Tesla, Uber and China's Baidu (BIDU).
David Kelley, analyst at Jefferies, says assisted driving systems remains the core market through 2025 for chip and sensor makers. The same is true for automotive suppliers like Aptiv. He predicts standard driving assistance systems in half of all cars shipped in 2025, he says.
Autonomous Trucks Key Market
Long-range, the Jefferies analyst expects autonomous technology to be a hot market for Aptive, Veoneer (VNE), Visteon (VC) and others.
Kelley says autonomous trucks could be an initial driver of the market. Consultant McKinsey, in a report, also points to the trucking industry.
Self-driving trucks may be able to travel on interstate highways in platoons before human drivers take over.
Aside from ride-sharing fleets, analysts say autonomous vehicles will be first deployed in gated communities, college campuses, theme parks, airports and warehouse distribution centers — all rangebound locations.
"We expect autonomous vehicle production up to 2025 will be limited to commercial ride hailing and a subset of the luxury market," added Kelley. "However, beyond 2025, we expect rapid shift to autonomous vehicles as systems costs decline with hardware production scale." He doesn't expect a sizable consumer rollout of self-driving cars until 2030.
In a report, UBS projects driver assistance systems in 100% of cars manufactured by 2030. It sees 12% of vehicles full autonomous technology at that point. That would represent a $63 billion market opportunity for semiconductor makers.
"Our base case assumes autonomous vehicle technology improves rapidly, but consumers and regulators don't follow as quickly," said Timothy Arcuri, a UBS analyst in the report. "In spite of AV being more reliable than human drivers, regulators and society have a much lower tolerance for accidents caused by robots."
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE:
Next Big Thing In Cloud Computing Puts Amazon And Its Peers On The Edge
Track Stock Market Data On The S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones And SPDR ETFs
Get Notifications For Live IBD Videos By Subscribing On YouTube
Sell And Take Profits Or Hold? Here Are Several Guidelines To Follow
The post Why Waymo And Autonomous Vehicle Rivals May Take Slower Road To Riches appeared first on Investor's Business Daily.
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/BusinessRss/~3/sHzUWGNPqzo/
No comments:
Post a Comment