Brexit - withdrawal prospective

Brexit is the popular term for the prospective withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU).

In a referendum on 23 June 2016, 51.9% of the participating UK electorate (the turnout was 72.2% of the electorate) voted to leave the EU. On 29 March 2017, the British government invoked Article 50 of the Treaty on the European Union. The UK is thus on course to leave the EU on 29 March 2019.


Prime Minister Theresa May announced that the UK would not seek permanent membership of the single market or the customs union after leaving the EU and promised to repeal the European Communities Act of 1972 and incorporate existing European Union law into UK domestic law. A new government department, the Department for Exiting the European Union (DExEU), was created in July 2016, with Eurosceptic David Davis appointed its first Secretary of State. Negotiations with the EU officially started in June 2017.

The UK joined the European Communities (EC) in 1973, with membership confirmed by a referendum in 1975. In the 1970s and 1980s, withdrawal from the EC was advocated mainly by Labour Party members and trade union figures. From the 1990s, the main advocates of withdrawal were the newly founded UK Independence Party (UKIP) and an increasing number of Eurosceptic Conservative Party members.

There is strong agreement among economists and a broad consensus in existing economic research that Brexit is likely to reduce UK's real per-capita income in the medium- and long-term. Studies on effects that have already materialised since the referendum show annual losses of £404 for the average British household and suggests a loss of 1.3% of UK GDP. Brexit is likely to reduce immigration from European Economic Area (EEA) countries to the UK, and poses challenges for UK higher education and academic research. The size of the "divorce bill" (the sum of money demanded by the EU from the UK for the departure), future of Scottish secession, Britain's international agreements, relations with the Republic of Ireland, and the borders with France and between Gibraltar and Spain are uncertain. The precise impact on the UK depends on a "hard" Brexit (whereby the UK leaves the EU and does not join EFTA or the EEA) or a "soft" Brexit (whereby the UK joins EFTA, the EEA or enters into a special agreement with the EU that retains significant access to the Single Market).

Sources:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37532364
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/17/theresa-may-brexit-12-point-plan-live/
https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-confirms-it-will-leave-customs-union/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit


Media Article:

Article 50: Theresa May to trigger Brexit process next week
20 March 2017





Prime Minister Theresa May is to officially notify the European Union next Wednesday that the UK is leaving.
Downing Street said she would write a letter to the European Council, adding that it hoped negotiations on the terms of exit and future relations could then begin as quickly as possible.
An EU spokesman said it was "ready and waiting" for the letter.
Mrs May's spokesman also rejected reports an early election may be held, saying: "It's not going to happen."
Under the Article 50 process, talks on the terms of exit and future relations are not allowed until the UK formally tells the EU it is leaving.
If all goes according to the two year negotiations allowed for in the official timetable, Brexit should happen in March 2019.

A No 10 spokesman said the UK's Ambassador to the EU, Sir Tim Barrow, informed the European Council, headed by President Donald Tusk, earlier on Monday of the date that Article 50 would be triggered.
Mrs May is expected to make a statement to the House of Commons on Wednesday shortly after invoking Article 50, setting out her aims.

'Clear aims'
Speaking in Swansea on Monday, during the first of a series of visits around the UK before she triggers Article 50, Mrs May said she was intent on "delivering on Brexit and getting the right deal".
Last year's referendum result, she added, "was not just about leaving the EU" but was a vote for a "change in the way the country works".
"Part of that is building a strong economy and ensuring that the benefits of economic growth and prosperity are felt across every part of the UK."

Brexit Secretary David Davis said the UK was now "on the threshold of the most important negotiation for this country for a generation".
"The government is clear in its aims," he said. "A deal that works for every nation and region of the UK and indeed for all of Europe - a new, positive partnership between the UK and our friends and allies in the European Union."
In response to the news, Mr Tusk tweeted: "Within 48 hours of the UK triggering Article 50, I will present the draft Brexit guidelines to the EU27 Member States."
Mr Tusk has previously said he expects to call an extraordinary summit of the 27 other members within four to six weeks, to draw up a mandate for the European Commission's chief negotiator, Michel Barnier. Under this scenario, talks are likely to begin in earnest in May.
Sir Tim Barrow, the UK's most senior representative at the EU, said the 27 had had plenty of time to prepare for this moment and he expected them to set out their stall "pretty quickly".
"Our mandate is clear, it is to get on with it," he told MPs on the European Scrutiny Committee. "There is a timetable that everyone has bought into it."
Mrs May said last year that she intended to notify the EU of the UK's intention to leave by the end of March. The move was approved by Parliament two weeks ago when peers and MPs passed unchanged a bill giving the prime minister the authority to set the process in motion.
EU leaders have said they want to conclude the talks within 18 months to allow the terms of the UK's exit to be ratified by the UK Parliament and the European Parliament, as well as approved by the necessary majority of EU states.

Mrs May has said MPs and peers will have a vote on the deal she negotiates but she has insisted the UK will leave anyway even if Parliament rejects it. The government has said it expects to secure a positive outcome but made clear there is a chance of there being no formal agreement with Mrs May saying no deal was better than a bad deal.
Ahead of Mrs May naming the date European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker was quoted in German newspaper Bild saying the UK may have to abandon hopes of getting a trade deal if it did not agree to the term offered by the EU.
These terms may include a £50bn "divorce bill" and Mr Juncker said Brexit could bring the remaining 27 members closer together: "They will all see from the UK's example that leaving the EU is a bad idea."
Labour's Keir Starmer said the opposition would hold the government to account throughout the process, claiming the prime minister had failed to provide certainty about her plans or prepare for the "clear dangers" of not reaching a deal at all.
The Scottish National Party's Europe spokesperson at Westminster, Stephen Gethins, said: "Today's announcement... shatters beyond repair any notion or position that the Prime Minister is seeking a UK-wide agreement.
"For nine months since the EU referendum, there has been no attempt by the UK government to seek a meaningful discussion or agreement with the devolved administrations."
Lib Dem leader Tim Farron, who has called for the public to have their say on the terms of exit in a further referendum, said Mrs May's decision to rule out membership of the single market before negotiations began was proof she was pursuing an "extreme and divisive" Brexit.
"Leaving the single market was not on the ballot paper in the referendum, it is a political choice made by Theresa May," he said.
Later this week, EU leaders will gather in Rome to mark the 60th anniversary of the Treaties of Rome, which established the European Economic Community - the initial forerunner to the EU. Mrs May is not attending the event.

Source:
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39325561


Brexit negotiations
The Article 50 negotiation process and principles for the United Kingdom's departure from the European Union.
On 29 March 2017, the United Kingdom notified the European Council of its intention to leave the European Union, in accordance with Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union. On 29 April 2017, the European Council – made up of the heads of state or government of the 28 EU countries – adopted a set of political guidelines, which define the framework for the negotiations and set out the EU's overall positions and principles.

The EU is represented by Michel Barnier, as Chief Negotiator for the 27 EU countries. His taskforce at the European Commission coordinates the work on all strategic, operational, legal and financial issues related to the negotiations.

Terms of Reference for the Article 50 TEU negotiations

19 June 2017

Terms of Reference for the Article 50 TEU negotiations
The United Kingdom and the European Commission, representing the EU,
share the understanding that the following elements will guide the
negotiations under Article 50 of the Treaty of the European Union (TEU):
Negotiation Structure
1. The negotiating rounds will consist of plenary sessions and negotiating
group meetings.
2. Plenary negotiating sessions should be co-chaired by the Principals
and/or Coordinators who have the overall responsibility for managing
the negotiating process and provide necessary guidance, as appropriate.
3. The following initial negotiating groups have been established:
 Citizens' rights;
 Financial Settlement;
 Other Separation issues.


Terms of Reference for the Article 50 TEU negotiations
The United Kingdom and the European Commission, representing the EU,
share the understanding that the following elements will guide the
negotiations under Article 50 of the Treaty of the European Union (TEU):
Negotiation Structure
 The negotiating rounds will consist of plenary sessions and negotiating
group meetings.
 Plenary negotiating sessions should be co-chaired by the Principals
and/or Coordinators who have the overall responsibility for managing
the negotiating process and provide necessary guidance, as appropriate.
 The following initial negotiating groups have been established:
 Citizens' rights;
 Financial Settlement;
 Other Separation issues.

In addition, a dialogue on Ireland / Northern Ireland has been launched
under the authority of the Coordinators.

Indicative dates are:
 Opening: 19th June
 Second round: w/c 17th July
 Third round: w/c 28th August
 Fourth round: w/c 18th September
 Fifth round: w/c 9th October

Source:
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/eu-uk-art-50-terms-reference_agreed_amends_en.pdf

1st negotiation round of EU-UK Article 50 negotiations (12 June 2017)
 "Essential Principles on Citizens' Rights"
Essential Principles on Citizens' Rights

On 19 June 2017, David Davis arrived in Brussels to start negotiations with Michel Barnier. Terms of reference were agreed, and dates were set for four-week cycles, to culminate in a fifth round of negotiations in the week commencing 9 October. Negotiating groups were established for three topics: citizens' rights, the financial settlement and "other separation issues", with a separate dialogue on Ireland / Northern Ireland to be led by Barnier and Davis

The Withdrawal Agreement should protect the rights of EU27 citizens, UK nationals and their family
members who, at the date of entry into force of the Withdrawal Agreement, have enjoyed rights
relating to free movement under Union law, as well as rights which are in the process of being
obtained and the rights the enjoyment of which will intervene at a later date [for example pension
rights].
General principles:
The following general principles should apply in accordance with Union law, as interpreted by the
Court of Justice of the European Union at the date of entry into force of the Withdrawal Agreement
[including also interpretations given in cases pending on the date of withdrawal for which the Court's
competence is maintained pursuant to the Withdrawal Agreement]:
(1) Same level of protection as set out in Union law at the date of withdrawal of EU27 citizens in
the UK and of UK nationals in EU27 including the right to acquire permanent residence after
a continuous period of five years of legal residence;
(2) Equal treatment in the UK of EU27 citizens as compared to UK nationals, and in EU27 of UK
nationals as compared to EU27 citizens, in accordance with Union law;
(3) Equal treatment amongst EU27 citizens by and in the UK in all matters covered by the
Withdrawal Agreement, without prejudice to Common Travel Area arrangements between
the UK and Ireland;
(4) EU27 citizens or UK nationals who resided legally respectively in the UK or EU27 at the date
of entry into force of the Withdrawal Agreement should be considered legally resident even
if they do not hold a residence document evidencing that right. Documents to be issued in
relation to these rights should have a declaratory nature and be issued either free of charge
or for a charge not exceeding that imposed on nationals for the issuing of similar documents;
(5) All citizens' rights set out in the Withdrawal Agreement should be granted as directly
enforceable vested rights in both the UK and in EU27 as specified in Section IV.

Source:
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/essential-principles-citizens-rights_en_3.pdf
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit_negotiations


2nd negotiation round of EU-UK Article 50 negotiations (Brussels, 17-20 July 2017)
COMPARISON OF EU/UK POSITIONS ON CITIZENS' RIGHTS - 19/07/2017

COMPARISON:
Four days of talks, largely between officials, were held in Brussels on July 17–20. Progress was made in understanding each other's positions.On citizens' rights, a joint paper compared the positions of the two parties in tabular form. On Irish border issues, both parties stated that they remained committed to the Good Friday Agreement. Michel Barnier called for clarification from the UK in the August round on the financial settlement, citizens’ rights and Ireland, including on how the UK intends to maintain the Common Travel Area.

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/eu-uk_table_cr.pdf
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit_negotiations


3rd negotiation round of EU-UK Article 50 negotiations (Brussels, 28-31 August 2017)

Talks were held in Brussels on August 28–31. Agreement was reached on points including protecting the rights of frontier workers (those living in one country and working in another); recognition by the UK of social security contributions made both before and after exit; and continuation of healthcare reimbursement for UK citizens who are in the EU27 on exit day and vice versa.[33] The joint paper comparing the two parties' positions was updated.[31]
Speaking at the conclusion of the talks, Michel Barnier highlighted two areas of disagreement: the role of the European Court of Justice in enforcing citizens' rights, and the extent of the UK's financial obligations. He stated "Time is passing quickly ... At the current speed, we are far from being able to recommend to the European Council that there has been sufficient progress in order to start discussions on the future relationship"

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/joint_table_citizens_rights_-third_round.pdf
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit_negotiations


4th negotiation round of EU-UK Article 50 negotiations (Brussels, 25-28 September 2017)

The fourth round of talks began on 25 September, having been delayed by one week as Theresa May was due to deliver a speech in Florence on the 22nd. She proposed a transitional "implementation period" of "around two years" and said that the UK "will honour commitments" so as to not make other EU countries pay more or receive less during the current EU budget period.
The programme for the round of talks arranged for meetings between the "Principals" and for three negotiating groups covering citizens’ rights, financial settlement and other separation issues, while Northern Ireland issues would be addressed by the "Coordinators", and governance of the withdrawal agreement was also for discussion at technical level.
David Davis repeated Theresa May's request for a time-limited implementation period. The UK offered to incorporate the Withdrawal Agreement into UK law and ensure the UK courts can refer directly to it, but there was no agreement on the role of the European Court of Justice and the standing of future ECJ case law.
Mr Barnier welcomed the UK's commitment regarding payments into the current EU budget plan, but expressed reservations about obligations beyond 2020. Mr Davis said the UK was not yet in a position to quantify its commitments.
There were constructive discussions on the Irish border, but no substantive progress.
The UK accepted the EU's definition of 'citizens lawfully resident before the cut off date', although that date was not agreed. There was agreement on the definitions of permanent and temporary residence. The UK offered a more generous "right of return" (after absence for longer than two consecutive years) than the minimum rights under current EU law. Rights of future family members remains a point of disagreement. The joint paper comparing the two parties' positions was again updated.

Source:
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/table_-_citizens_rights.pdf
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit_negotiations


5th negotiation round of EU-UK Article 50 negotiations (Brussels, 9-12 October 2017)

The fifth round of negotiations was held on 9, 10 and 12 October. There was technical progress on citizens' rights, although divergences remained on aspects of family reunion and the export from the UK of social security benefits. The UK stated an intention to offer a simple process for registration of EU citizens. On the Irish border, work continued to map out current areas of cooperation and build a picture of the future challenges.
On the financial settlement, Michel Barnier welcomed the commitment made by Theresa May in her Florence speech, but no negotiations took place because the UK was not ready to give details of what it would pay. Barnier said this issue had reached an impasse.
This round of talks completed the timetable agreed in June,with no further rounds scheduled

Source:
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/agenda_5th_round.pdf
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit_negotiations


6th negotiation round of EU-UK Article 50 negotiations (Brussels, 9-10 November 2017)

Further talks were held in Brussels on 9 and 10 November. Speaking at the closing press conference, Michel Barnier confirmed that clarification on financial commitments by the UK was required within the next two weeks. If the informal deadline is not met, the next phase of negotiations will not start in December, said Barnier.[47] EU diplomats have described the situation as a "chicken and egg dilemma", as the EU will only start working on transition guidelines if Britain makes progress on financial issues by the end of November 2017.[48] By November 17, however, Donald Tusk said there was no deadlock in talks between Britain and the EU following a meeting with Theresa May in Gothenburg, Sweden and that he was optimistic that negotiations could move on to the next phase in December.
Discussions on the financial settlement took place later in the month, led by Oliver Robbins for the UK and Sabine Weyand for the EU

Source:
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/agenda_6th_round.pdf
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit_negotiations

Finalised negotiation round of EU-UK Article 50:expected to bless trade with Britain during the 14–15 December

Negotiations between officials led to a draft agreement which was expected to be finalised at a meeting between Jean-Claude Juncker and Theresa May in Brussels on 4 December. There was progress on the financial settlement and citizens' rights, but the meeting was abandoned after Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party objected to arrangements for the Irish border; the agreement had earlier received the support of Leo Varadkar, Ireland’s Taoiseach (prime minister).
Talks continued on the following days, leading to publication on 8 December of a joint report setting out the commitments to be reflected in the Withdrawal Agreement. "Agreement in principle" was reached on the three areas:
protecting the rights of Union citizens in the UK and UK citizens in the Union
the framework for addressing the unique circumstances of Northern Ireland
the financial settlement.
Juncker described the agreement as a "breakthrough" Brexit deal. The second phase of negotiations concerning Britain's post-Brexit trade with the EU will now be able to take place as a result of the agreement. EU leaders are expected to bless trade with Britain during the December summit.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit_negotiations

Brexit: European Commission recommends sufficient progress to the European Council (Article 50)

Brussels, 8 December 2017

The European Commission has today recommended to the European Council (Article 50) to conclude that sufficient progress has been made in the first phase of the Article 50 negotiations with the United Kingdom.

It is now for the European Council (Article 50) on 15 December 2017 to decide if sufficient progress has been made, allowing the negotiations to proceed to their second phase.
The Commission's assessment is based on a Joint Report agreed by the negotiators of the Commission and the United Kingdom Government, which was today endorsed by Prime Minister Theresa May during a meeting with President Jean-Claude Juncker.

http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-17-5173_en.htm


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